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Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish outlook for 2025 spooked investors, leading to significant drops in cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin falling 8% to $92,000 and XRP plunging 13%. Although both have since rebounded, concerns about thinning liquidity over the holidays and a potential US government shutdown loom large. The aggressive tone from the Fed caught traders off guard, as they had anticipated a 0.25% rate cut, while Powell dismissed the idea of a US Bitcoin strategic reserve.
The PUK report reveals significant failings among Swiss authorities in managing the Credit Suisse crisis, highlighting a lack of coordination, mistrust, and delayed action that contributed to the bank's downfall. Despite portraying a successful rescue, the report exposes the inadequacies of FINMA, the SNB, and the Federal Council in crisis management and regulatory oversight. The findings underscore the need for accountability and reform to prevent future banking failures.
The Swiss stock exchange closed lower, with the SMI down 0.26% at 11,384.92 points, marking a 3% loss over the week and reducing year-to-date gains to just 2%. Investor uncertainty stems from the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate cuts and concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown. Notable declines were seen in UBS, Partners Group, and various insurance companies, while Idorsia plummeted 50.35% due to delays in drug negotiations.
The stock market is signaling a challenging 2025, with a 14-day streak of declining S&P 500 stocks outpacing gains, the worst since 1978. A disappointing Santa Claus rally could exacerbate market breadth issues, while extreme investor optimism raises concerns about future returns. If recent trends continue, 2025 may prove difficult for investors.
The Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry into Credit Suisse has concluded that senior management failed in their duties, prompting recommendations for stricter regulations on banks, including UBS. While UBS has adopted a more conservative approach post-takeover, concerns remain about potential future risks and the implicit state guarantees that could encourage reckless behavior. The effectiveness of new regulatory tools and the responsibility of systemically important banks towards the Swiss economy are critical for preventing future crises.
Credit Suisse's collapse in March 2023 was attributed to years of mismanagement, with the Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry highlighting the board's failure to heed regulatory warnings. While federal authorities were found to have shortcomings, they acted decisively to prevent a broader financial crisis during the UBS takeover. The report emphasizes the need for improved oversight and timely decision-making in the banking sector.
UBS projects the S&P 500 to reach 6,600, despite an anticipated reduction in the number of Federal Reserve rate cuts. This outlook reflects confidence in market resilience amid changing monetary policy dynamics.
Kevin Zhao of UBS Asset Management plans to purchase US Treasuries during the holiday season, anticipating a selloff due to thin trading volumes. He believes that President-elect Donald Trump's policies will negatively impact the economy, contrary to the prevailing view that they will boost growth and inflation, thus affecting the bond market.
UBS Asset Management’s Kevin Zhao plans to purchase US Treasuries during the holiday season, anticipating a selloff due to thin trading volumes. He believes that President-elect Donald Trump's policies will negatively impact the economy, contrary to the prevailing view that they will boost growth and inflation, thus affecting the bond market.
UBS Asset Management’s Kevin Zhao plans to buy US Treasuries during the holiday season, anticipating that President-elect Trump’s policies will negatively impact economic growth. Despite a market trend of selling off Treasuries, Zhao believes yields will rise to 4.6% before year-end, and he sees potential buying opportunities amid holiday market volatility. He argues that the benefits of tax cuts are being overestimated and may not materialize until 2026.
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